Coldest Winter Temperatures in the Northwest with Relatively Mild Winter Ahead in the Eastern US

by admin on October 25, 2012


Andover, MA (PRWEB) October 23, 2012

WSI (Weather Services International) expects the November-January period to be cooler-than-standard across the northwestern quarter of the nation and in parts of the Southeast, with above-typical temperatures across most of the eastern two-thirds of the nation. The WSI seasonal outlooks reference a regular 30-year standard (1981-2010).

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It is now clear that the previously expected El Nino occasion is dead on arrival heading into the winter season. We do not count on any of the classic El Nino weather impacts in the US this winter, mentioned Dr. Todd Crawford WSI Chief Meteorologist. In reality, our forecast looks more like what would be considered a La Nina winter, with the coldest temperatures across the northwestern half of the country and a usually mild winter across a lot of the eastern US. We expect that the strongest signal this winter will be for cold Alaskan high pressure to direct cold Arctic air southward into western Canada and the northwestern US, with warmer southerly flow in control more than significantly of the eastern US. The most significant wild card heading toward winter is the degree of atmospheric blocking in the North Atlantic, usually referred to as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Over the last few winters there have been wild swings in the NAO, from historically strong blocking winters (2009-ten and 2010-11) and very cold eastern US temperatures, to historically weak winters (2011-12) with record warm temperatures. Latest climate model forecasts and statistical predictors usually suggest that Atlantic blocking will be the exception rather than the rule this upcoming winter, and we feel that the odds are tilted towards yet another mild winter across much of the eastern US.

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In November, WSI sees the month-to-month breakdown as:&#13

Northeast* Slightly warmer than regular&#13

Southeast* Cooler than standard&#13

N Central *

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